Why I Won’t Be Attending The Calling: Las Vegas

I had been looking forward to attending The Calling: Las Vegas for some time, but with the COVID situation where it’s at presently I just don’t think that attending an event under these conditions is prudent and I have cancelled my plans to attend. I apologize in advance for writing what I think may well be a controversial post, but I do think this is important to consider. I want to also add that I do not intend any of this as an insult to Channel Fireball, to Legend Story Studios, or to anyone who plans on attending The Calling — I just want to share my reasoning here with the community.

The state of COVID in Clark County, Nevada

The Calling: Las Vegas will be held at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Clark County, Nevada. This is not the worst location the event could be held in (it could be in a casino which would be even higher risk) but is still not very encouraging to me. Here’s a quick look at the state of virus infection in Clark County:

Source: Google using NYT data, screenshot taken Aug 30. Note that the very high new case count on the 30th is likely an outlier caused by data not being reported on the weekend and hence a big spike on Monday — the 7-day average is I think more informative here.

As you can see, Clark County is by no means at its worst state ever for COVID. However, it is still in a major spike relative even to earlier this year, and while it does look like things are declining a bit I do not think that they will have declined to a low level by the time the event occurs in a week — it’ll still be a notably elevated period.

Further, there is in my view substantial reason to believe that Las Vegas may be an unusually dangerous place for COVID, more so than these numbers indicate. Las Vegas enjoys very substantial tourist activity; as a result, there are many people who may be in Las Vegas for a short trip (especially on the weekend), may have COVID already or contract it while there, and then return to their own communities prior to being tested. These cases might then look like cases in other areas and not show up in the Clark County data, but in fact also represent a risk to those in Las Vegas.

As a further point, Vegas is in general not a location known for its great prudence and restraint. Las Vegas probably has an unusually high percentage of intoxicated or otherwise impaired people, who are less likely to be taking appropriate action with respect to virus precautions. Further, since the economy of the area relies heavily on tourism, the economic incentives likely push government and business owners in the area towards making decisions that are oriented towards factors other than immediate safety.

COVID Risks at Major Tournaments

I have attended several major card game tournaments before. In general, the way that these tournaments are conducted in my view exposes one to substantial risk. Typically you find yourself sitting across from one opponent with other games going on to either side of you. Tables are relatively densely packed, so you might find yourself sitting within six feet of quite a few people! Further, these events tend to be rather loud with people talking well above normal tones of voice to make themselves heard — itself exposing you to an increased risk of infection. Here’s a picture of a past big tournament in Vegas, this one a Magic: the Gathering Grand Prix that occurred several years ago:

This is what a big card tournament in Vegas might look like. That’s a lot of density.

(photo from Wizards’ coverage of MTG Grand Prix Las Vegas 2013)

To their credit, Channel Fireball does say that they will have “spacious seating” and “spacious queueing”, though their site does not provide details on what that means. It is possible that this setup will mitigate risks somewhat. However, I have to say that “spacious” by the standard of big card game tournaments might well end up being rather dense by the standard of normal events. Further, I believe the event floor will be open to the public, meaning there are more people coming in and watching games, interacting with vendors, etc. — and hence more of a potential infection risk at the event.

On top of these factors, one has to consider the risks involved in travelling to the event, staying in a hotel /AirBNB, visiting any other public places while in Las Vegas, and so on. While these travel risks probably vary a fair bit — from “near zero” for someone who already lives in Vegas and is just going to drive over to “quite a lot” for someone who is going to make a big trip of it, see a bunch of sights, spend hours gambling at a crowded casino where people are smoking and drinking, etc. — they’re generally likely to make the trip more risky, especially for those (like me) who would be traveling from out of state.

Personal Factors

One final set of relevant factors is personal. I am perhaps unusually vulnerable to illness. I’m not formally “immunocompromised” or anything but I find myself falling sick comparatively often compared to others that I know. In fact, I missed two Road to Nationals events that I’d planned on attending after falling ill earlier in August! (Tests came back negative for COVID, thankfully.) Further, I live with housemates and thus have to worry more about potentially infecting others if I do find myself getting sick.

One personal factor in my favor is that I am vaccinated — however, the vaccines do not provide complete protection, and I believe there are cases where the virus has spread even at events where all attendees are vaccinated. I do not believe The Calling does require everyone to be vaccinated (please correct me if I am wrong on this point), and if things are spreading even at events where everyone is vaccinated an event where this is not required seems to entail a more significant risk.

As a result, I am going to play things more conservatively than other people might. Someone who is in more robust health and is living alone might well come to a different conclusion.

Mitigating Risks for Attendees

Let’s say that you, on the other hand, want to go to the tournament anyway. There are safer and less safe ways to do that. The big way to increase safety from COVID is to get vaccinated, though at this phase there isn’t really enough time before the event to do so and have full protection. I personally am already vaccinated, but I don’t consider this sufficient protection on its own thanks to the Delta variant.

One of the easiest ways that you can increase your safety level further is by getting a better mask. By default, many people are wearing loose-fitting cloth masks. These provide limited protection to you, though they do somewhat mitigate risks to others if you are sick. Note that wearing a mask underneath your nose (covering the mouth only) provides much worse protection, with some claiming this is basically just as bad as not wearing a mask at all.

To improve protection, one could get a better-quality cloth mask (thicker and tightly fitting), but I would recommend going further still — an N95 mask provides substantially increased protection at a cheap price. Wearing one of these, assuming it is properly fitted, provides much better filtration than a simple cloth mask. Further, N95 masks are widely and cheaply available as of this writing. Note that if you have an N95 with an exhalation valve, you might want to wear another mask (even a thin cloth mask or surgical mask) over it to cover the valve and hence provide superior protection to those around you.

If you want to go a step beyond the N95, a respirator with appropriate P100 filters can provide a further degree of protection. I personally have a respirator with P100 filters that I originally purchased to help with wildfire smoke — this mask provides such good filtration that I was once standing next to a trash can that had burning garbage in it and could not smell the fire at all until I took off the mask. Note that if you have one of these masks and it has an exhalation valve, covering the exhalation valve (even with basic cloth) is a prudent way to provide increased protection to others around you.

Further, there is some research indicating that protecting your eyes might be advantageous for preventing COVID infection. Simply wearing glasses might offer some protection, though you may be able to gain a further advantage with a face shield. Face shields are not very good at protecting you from breathing in particles (so you should wear a mask regardless of whether you have a face shield) but do provide protection from particles hitting you in the eyes directly. Wearing a face shield over a mask can be useful both for protecting your eyes and in some cases for protecting from droplets directly contacting the surface of your mask.

There are even more protective options available, such as military gas masks with appropriate filters or positive pressure hoods. These provide extremely strong protection including both the eyes and the nose/mouth, but have other downsides — military gas masks often look quite weird or menacing and may be inappropriate for use in normal settings, while positive pressure hoods are typically expensive and require batteries, which may make them unsuited for a long day of gaming.

If I were going to the event, I would be wearing a full-face respirator with P100 filters and covered exhalation valve and perhaps a disposable face shield on top of that. Note, though, that no option provides 100% reliable protection, especially as you may take off a mask to eat, take a drink of water, and so on.

Conclusions

I was excited to attend (and compete in!) The Calling, but personally I looked at the COVID rates in the area, the risks involved in attending a major tournament (and traveling to do so), and the personal risk factors involved and I’ve decided I won’t be attending. I thought it might be worthwhile to post this so I can share my thinking with others and perhaps encourage others to take their own precautions.

I should reiterate that I do not intend any of this as an insult to Channel Fireball, Legend Story Studios, or to those in the community who do end up attending. My hope is that I will look at the footage and think “wow, they did a great job setting up a distanced space, people are wearing good masks, that looks much better than I was expecting” — but given the uncertainties and personal risks involved, I have decided that I won’t be attending this one.

Note also that, to their credit, Channel Fireball appears to be refunding me after I let them know that I wouldn’t be attending. They didn’t have to do that and I appreciate them doing so. I really am not trying to “tear them down” with this post — they’re in an unfortunate situation given that the virus has proved longer-lasting than many were expecting with this new variant — and I look forward to potentially attending future events they host.

Lastly, my apologies to any readers who were hoping to meet me at The Calling: Las Vegas — I was certainly looking forward to meeting some of you. Hopefully we can meet at some tournament in the future once things are looking better!